As the voting process for the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 concluded on Tuesday, multiple exit polls have predicted a decisive victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Janata Dal (United). The alliance is expected to secure a comfortable majority ranging between 130 and 160 seats, paving the way for its return to power in the state.
According to the People Pulse survey, the NDA is projected to win between 133 and 159 seats, while the opposition Mahagathbandhan — comprising the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, and Left parties — is likely to secure between 75 and 101 seats. The survey further predicts that Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj party may manage between 0 and 5 seats, while independent candidates and smaller parties could claim between 2 and 8 seats.
The Dainik Bhaskar exit poll also forecasts a strong performance for the NDA, projecting 145 to 160 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan is likely to win 73 to 91 seats. The survey suggests that Jan Suraaj might not make any significant impact in the polls, with others expected to win 5 to 10 seats.
Similarly, the DVC Research poll indicates that the NDA may secure 137 to 152 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan could bag 83 to 98 seats. Jan Suraaj is projected to win 2 to 4 seats, with other regional outfits and independents expected to take 4 to 8 seats.
Most surveys suggest that Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s leadership, in alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party, continues to command substantial voter confidence across key regions of the state. The alliance’s campaign focused heavily on development, women’s empowerment, and infrastructure expansion, while opposition parties centred their campaign on unemployment, inflation, and governance issues.
The Election Commission of India (ECI) reported a voter turnout of 67.14 per cent in the second and final phase of polling, reflecting a strong public response. The highest turnout was recorded in Kishanganj (76.26 per cent), followed by Katihar (75.23 per cent), Purnia (73.79 per cent), and Supaul (70.69 per cent).
Other major districts such as Purvi Champaran (69.02 per cent), Banka (68.91 per cent), Gaya (67.50 per cent), and Kaimur (67.22 per cent) also reported high participation. The lowest turnout was recorded in Nawada at 57.11 per cent, according to ECI’s voter turnout application.
The first phase of polling, held earlier this month, saw an impressive 65.08 per cent voter turnout — one of the highest in Bihar’s electoral history. Political analysts suggest that this high participation rate reflects intense voter interest and may have played a decisive role in shaping the outcome predicted by the exit polls.
The 2025 Bihar elections witnessed a three-way contest, primarily between the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the Mahagathbandhan, and Jan Suraaj, the new political formation led by strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor.
The NDA currently includes the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Janata Dal (United), Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), and the Rashtriya Lok Morcha. The Mahagathbandhan, on the other hand, comprises the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist), Communist Party of India, Communist Party of India (Marxist), and Mukesh Sahani’s Vikasheel Insaan Party (VIP).
In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, polling took place in three phases. The NDA had secured 125 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan won 110 seats. Within the alliance, the BJP had won 74 seats, the JD(U) 43, while the RJD bagged 75 seats and the Congress 19.
The latest exit poll projections indicate that the NDA may improve upon its 2020 performance, with strong showings in northern and central Bihar, while the Mahagathbandhan may struggle to expand its support base beyond its traditional strongholds. The final results of the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections will be declared by the Election Commission of India once the counting of votes concludes later this week.
